Digesting Super Tuesday in the U.S. and Beyond

Well, what a week - aside from the New York Giants beating my at-the-time undefeated New England Patriots, this week had lots of excitement from the U.S. political front with Super Tuesday results. I wasn't feeling well that evening, so unfortunately, I didn't get a chance to follow the web results as they flowed in. Though I got up in the middle of the night to grab a Pepto-Bismol and quickly glanced at the results.

Not really terribly surprised at the end results. Clinton won the big states of California and New York, and still maintains a slim lead over Obama, who to my surprised, won more States than Clinton, and even more surprising, won several predominantly "white" states. Now, after his Iowa caucus win, in a state that is something like 97% white, I guess I shouldn't be surprised. But he pulled off wins in other states which I don't think are chok-full-of minorities (Idaho and Utah, for example). In analyzing exit poll information, I think Clinton is surviving based on the Latino vote from the big states (now, why the Latino vote seems to be overwhelmingly in Clinton's favour is another topic for another time - I can't tell you why right now). Now, that being said, I equally acknowledge that Obama is winning semi-big states like Georgia and South Carolina based on the extremely high percentage of black voters supporting him (we're talking 80-90%). However, the fact that Obama can win white states should make Clinton leery. Personally, while I am not a Democratic supporter (actually, I can't even vote in the U.S. election, as I don't live there, even though I give money towards the Huckabee campaign, the Brownback campaign, and many years ago, the Bush/Cheney ticket), I would prefer to see Obama win over Hillary - and that, despite the fact that I have one of the books that Hillary wrote signed by her, that I continue to use as an investment vehicle. Clinton recently revealed that she gave 5 million bucks of her own money towards her campaign - if she's running out of cash in your war chest, this is the wrong time. There are a few primaries today and several more on Tuesday. We'll see how it goes.

Enough on Democrats. On the Repulicans side, John McCain came out the clear winner, winning the big States and several other ones. Romney won a few, but could not compete. And in a growing movement against McCain, conservatives have (rightfully) gathered around Huckabee to provide him some "upset" wins over Romney for the conservative wing. Now, to my surprise, Romney dropped out a couple of days ago. Yes, he was trailing McCain badly, but was ahead of Huckabee. But I think he knew that he'd be taken to task on his flip-flopping positions over the years (ie. claiming to be pro-guns though he joined the NRA only in 2006). McCain is and would beat him hands down. But don't discount Huckabee though - I know conservatives (myself included) are not happy with McCain - he is not as socially conservative as I'd like, but his moderate positions are likely helping him get support from voters in generally liberal states like New York and California. The deep southern states more or less supported Huckabee. Unfortunately, I don't think the vast majority of Republicans these days are social conservatives, so I think that as much as I'd like to see Huckabee win, it will likely be McCain. And if it was between McCain and Clinton, I think McCain would win. Between Obama and McCain? Not sure about that one - Obama is actually similar to McCain in terms of reaching across party lines. Obama's wife Michelle would be a great first lady - she has the poise and confidence and does not look as "fake" as McCain's wife Cindy. But between McCain and Obama...not sure who I'd pick. Probably would still go with McCain since he's never pretended to be anything other than a moderate, so at least he's honest (unlike Romney). Obama has some positions I am not comfortable with (ie. gay unions, etc.), and he is way too focussed on Iraq.

I see that for whatever reason, Mike Gravel of the Democrats is still officially in the running. Why, I don't know - he neither has any delegates or superdelegates supporting him. He's won nothing - he isn't even being invited to debates. At least Ron Paul (who is not doing great, but I'm glad is still running) has not dropped out yet, but I would think that will change pretty soon. But as mentioned previously, Paul is a rabidly pro-homeschooler, and I am rabidly anti-homeschooling. Not to mention Paul also focusses too much on Iraq (which, like it or not, does not have an easy solution - sure, you can say pull out now, but consider all the logistical, geo-political, and local issues that will cause in Iraq).

OK, let's stop talking about the U.S. On the Canadian side, I recently became a bit disillusioned with my conservative federal government (who I support financially and of which I am a member) - they decided it was a good idea to send a Chinese New Year card to anyone who has an Asian sounding last name (or who indicated their ethnic status on their last census form, but that is unlikely). I am of Asian background and am ethnically Chinese, though I celebrate Chinese New Year as a general family get together for food and such, and not much more. I would think that I'd receive one of these cards from Prime Minister Harper and family. But nooo...my wife, who is not Asian, gets the Happy Chinese New Year card and I get zippo. This adds additional insult to injury to me, as last year, my wife and I took this wacky online "How Asian Are You?" test. She scored 78% Asian, while I scored 46%. Ah, what can you do...

U.S. Election 2008 - Part III

I think this is probably the third blog entry focussed on next year's U.S. elections - you may wonder why I'm not talking about the any Canadian elections - for one, there won't be a federal election for a couple of years at least (in my view), and even though there will be a Ontario provincial election, it's not terribly exciting (the Liberal guy in power is barely hanging on right now, but my gut tells me that the electorate don't really want to see a Conservative in power, so they will continue to vote in the indecisive, break-yer promises, "I want to be on camera" Dalton McGuinty. Truth be told, even though I'm a die-hard card carrying Conservative, I have some mixed issues with John Tory - he may be a nice enough guy, but I don't think he's socially as Conservative as I would like (I would still vote for him, but I'd prefer to see someone else). I'm sure I'll be writing a few more things about the Ontario elections over the next few months.

OK, where was I? Oh yes, the U.S. Presidential elections next year. Well, it would look as if McCain is not a factor anymore (was he ever?) - he's still in the top 3, but he's dropping positions fast. So I think it will really be between Mitt Romney (former governor of Massachusetts) and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani. It seems like former actor and senator Fred Thompson will be on the ticket, though he has unannounced, but I don't think enough people see him as a viable force, based on his lack of experience (though I'm sure his trophy wife will garner a few donations). But I think it will be down to Romney and Giuliani. With both as potential likely candidates to be on the ticket, I'm lukewarm on both - yes, I think either would be better than any of the Democrats, but Giuliani especially is a very liberal conservative, if there was such a thing. But there have been a recent development that has been a bit of a blow to Giuliani. His own daughter has thrown her support behind Barack Obama. Doh! Mitt Romney has also been picking up a lot of momentum on Giuliani, questioning whether he, as New York mayor, made the city a hotspot for illegal immigration. Giuliani is definitely on the defensive on that one. But I look at the U.S. and think, would they really vote in Romney, a mormon?

Ah, I really wish that Condolezza Rice, Colin Powell, or Bill Frist would put their name in the ring (I know Dick Cheney will not be doing so and has indicated numerous times). Or Sam Brownback would mysteriously start getting voter support. At this point, it seems as if the Democrats are picking up steam and the floating question seems to be - who will be the President - Obama or Clinton. I'm really hoping it won't come down to this.

Are Romney and Giuliani the best that the Republicans can offer in this election? My gut tells me that neither will stand much of a chance here against Hillary or Barack.